Policy-driven Chinese PV market
2013, simultaneous expansion of manufacturing and applications
The bankruptcy reorganization of Wuxi Suntech has become one of the highest ratings in the photovoltaic industry in 2013. However, the evolution of the Shangde story has not had much impact on the mentality of the peers. Even if it did not win in Suntech’s bankruptcy reorganization, Yingli did not change its established development strategy. Yinglian Group’s chairman, Miao Liansheng, said that he would withdraw from the acquisition of Wuxi Suntech’s acquisition competition, “will acquire some enterprises and have already inspected the second and third parties. Small and medium-sized enterprises with a capacity of 400-500MW, and finally choose 2-3.” Yingli is not afraid of expansion. They have become the world's largest PV company with 3.2GW of shipments. In 2014, they planned a larger downstream power station plan. .
Not only Yingli, China's first-line PV manufacturers, such as Trina Solar, Artes, Jingao, Jingke, Qihui, Hairun, Daquan, etc. are all on the road to expansion. The power of manufacturers to expand production comes from the growth of the global market. From the global installed capacity of 37GW, the growth rate of the Asia-Pacific market and the North American market is the largest.
The subsidies for distributed power generation of 0.42 yuan/kWh as stipulated in the Notice on Playing the Price Leverage to Promote the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry, issued in late August 2013, and the three types of subsurfaces of the ground power station from 0.9-1 yuan/kWh Electricity prices set the tone for China's PV development in the next two years or so. The introduction of the electricity price policy directly affected the installation of photovoltaic power plants in the second half of the year. The person in charge of a photovoltaic park in a city in Gansu directly felt the impact of the introduction of the electricity price policy. "On March 15, 2013, the government department convened a meeting of project owners to promote the construction of photovoltaic projects. The leaders said that the electricity price is about to be adjusted, and hopes to start in advance, but no People started construction and did not start construction until October. In the end, one company failed to build it on time and missed the price of 1 yuan.
Ground power station competition
Affected by the adjustment of electricity price, the final grid connection of China Power Enterprise Association in 2013 was 11.3GW, which exceeded the 10GW installed by the National Energy Administration. The promotion of new installed capacity is directly from the western region. In 2014, the price of electricity was lowered in 2014, and the project revenue was also directly affected. According to Solarbuzz statistics, in 2013, Gansu's grid-connected capacity was 2.34 GW, Xinjiang was 1.72 GW, and Qinghai was 1.67 GW. The reporter of "PV-Tech PRO" was informed in an interview in Gansu not long ago that Gansu Power Grid Company was "very tolerant" to the access to the grid connection project at the end of 3013. “Some power stations have only been built and have passed the grid check and acceptance of Gansu Power Grid.” According to relevant sources, “Gansu has a power cut situation, and new access projects are difficult to fully fulfill, and even some projects have 90% power. It must be limited. If it is completed, it will not be as full as the end of the year and part of it will be built again." The insider also said, "The more important factor is that Gansu has approved too many roads in the past, Gansu in 2014. The quota is only 500MW, which is not enough. In order to reduce the competition in 2014, more projects will be accessed in 2013 if possible."
In November 2013, the National Energy Administration solicited opinions on the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in 2014, and solicited opinions on the quotas issued to the provinces for the 8GW distributed project and the 4GW ground power station project. After three months, the National Energy Administration raised the total planned for 2014 to 14.05 GW, of which 8 GW was distributed and 6.05 GW was for ground power plants. The latter was upgraded. This stems from the province's demand for ground power plant quotas. Relevant personnel from the Development and Reform Commission of a certain province in the east revealed that “we don’t know how much the distributed project can be completed, but at least the ground power station can guarantee it.” After the first consultation, the relevant leaders of the provincial development and reform commissions frequently went to Beijing to obtain more ground project quotas. Therefore, in February 2014, the National Energy Administration raised the quota of ground power stations in more than 10 provinces by about 10MW.
When quotas are issued to provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, operations in different regions are also different. For example, in Zhejiang, the distribution and the ground are decomposed into more detailed indicators for the following cities; Shandong decomposes the distributed indicators, and the Provincial Development and Reform Commission still controls the ground projects. In Gansu, Xinjiang, Qinghai and other major installed provinces, the only indicators are closely watched by the project owners. Before the deadline for this article, the details of how the quotas of these provinces were broken down have not yet been obtained. Some cities and project owners are also focusing on obtaining quotas while also taking a different approach. The Xinjiang Development and Reform Commission of Hami District began to call on local owners to start new projects as soon as possible after the Spring Festival in 2014. Xinjiang Hami has 1.25GW of photovoltaic projects approved by the National Energy Administration, which does not occupy Xinjiang quotas, of which 950MW belongs to the Hami District Development and Reform Commission, and 300MW belongs to the Construction Corps Development and Reform Commission. This was approved in the name of complementary scenery. At present, the 1.25GW road has been configured. Qinghai, upstream of the Yellow River Hydropower built a 320MW photovoltaic power station in the Republic, this year will still build hundreds of megawatts of power stations, according to the plan, the total installed capacity of this project reaches 1GW, and Qinghai this year's quota is only 500MW. But don't worry, the hydropower projects in the upper reaches of the Yellow River are complementary to water and light, and do not occupy Qinghai's quota.
According to relevant sources, the quotas set by the National Energy Administration for the provinces are comprehensively formulated according to the local grid access conditions and other relevant factors. This non-quantitative complementary scenery and water and solar complement project can better solve the housing problem. In Gansu, there are companies trying to find new ways to avoid quota restrictions. One company has filed more than a hundred megawatts of agricultural PV projects, and another company has tried to implement some special policies with the National Energy Administration by combining desert sand control.
In the opinion of the construction scale in 2014, the National Energy Administration also pointed out that if the power cuts in the northwest region will reduce the scale of construction in the current year, and stop approving the scale of new filings for the next year. The reporter of "PV-Tech PRO" recently discovered in the northwest inspection that the power cut situation has existed and it is difficult to solve it effectively in 2014, and the power transmission in some areas will be more severe.
Distributed confusion
Behind the fierce competition in the share of the ground power station is the 8GW quota for distributed projects and the uncertainty of their projects. In order to achieve the goal, the National Energy Administration adopted a series of measures, first issued the “Interim Measures for the Management of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects”, which gave clearer regulations for distributed projects; on the other hand, the United Nations Development Bank gave The Opinions on Supporting Distributed Photovoltaic Financial Services, the core includes financial innovation, establishment of local investment and financing institutions, and unified lending. In order to open the breakthrough of the development of distributed projects, the National Energy Administration even set up 18 distributed photovoltaic demonstration zones, through the centralized deployment of resources to find problems and bottlenecks in distributed projects and find corresponding solutions.
Recently, with regard to the scale of distribution in 2014, there have been unconfirmed rumors that the National Energy Administration has completed 4 GW and is confident to achieve 6 GW. In fact, the industry’s lack of confidence in distributed projects is already evident. According to the analysis of Wang Sicheng, the vice chairman of China Renewable Energy Professional Committee, the distributed project with self-sufficiency and self-sufficiency, the income of residential electricity price and large industrial electricity price user project is obviously lower than the profit of commercial and commercial electricity price users. The former is profitable. Look unattractive. This is also the case that the projects in the 18 demonstration zones are generally dominated by industrial and commercial electricity price users, and a few projects that have already started are often implemented by enterprises on their own roofs.
In November 2013, the APEC Low Carbon Town Alliance conducted research in the provinces and cities of Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other countries. In response to the outstanding problems of distributed projects, two main solutions were proposed: The financing platform of the unified loan system and the charging and payment platform for collection and payment. Although the National Energy Administration agreed with the National Development Bank to provide financial support for the distributed demonstration area, the head office of the CDB also gave the top-level opinions and guidelines, but encountered various obstacles when the branches were implemented. In addition, when the National Energy Administration requested the declaration of distributed demonstration zones, it was clearly pointed out that each demonstration zone supported in principle a unified investment construction of the owners. In fact, some demonstration zones have been split into multiple projects of multiple enterprises, while Shandong The owner of an approved demonstration area is planning to transfer the project rights to another company that holds a large number of photovoltaic power plants. Financing difficulties, finding a suitable roof, and risk control are all core issues that distributed developers need to address.